Could Obama still lose the nomination?
Gosh I HOPE SO!!
By Denis Keohane
Many of us familiar with Hillary Clinton's approach to achieving her goals refused to believe that she ever gave up all hope of winning the nomination and the presidency. Her words and actions on the subject of the convention itself always left the door open for a return, should Obama falter or suffer some calamity.
Her artful evasions were enough to lull journalists and (more importantly) Obama and his supporters into the presumption of inevitability. No further rumblings of a mass protest in Denver should the first black candidate be denied his rightful due were heard. After all, he received enough publicly expressed support from super delegates to put him over the top. And he won the popular vote in the primaries, we were assured, lending legitimacy to the super delegates who voiced their support.
Everyone presumed the presumptive nominee was a lock.
Now there are a few signs that Hillary may be making her move.
National polls show not only a tightening of the Obama-McCain race to a statistical dead heat but momentum toward a McCain lead, something inconceivable only weeks ago. The specter of an Obama collapse has to haunt more than a few super delegates.
Buyer's remorse seemed evident and growing among many Democrats toward the end of their primary season when Obama lost again and again to Clinton, even as the delegate math was by then stacked in his favor. That remorse was put on hold (but apparently not resolved) by Obama's seeming to secure the nomination and the subsequent popular boost he enjoyed at first. But lately the candidate with a difference has had a hard time living up to his promise to be a new kind of politician.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.
How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or lost, served one, two or no terms?
It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.
After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes
Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.
If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!
This is proof that the man should not be negotiating with Ahmadinejad. If he cannot think strategically and recognize his vulnerability to a last minute ambush at the convention, he would be eaten alive in big league world affairs.
Worst of all, in his letter to the Credentials Committee arguing in favor of full votes for the two delegations, he writes:
These words tacitly argue for acceptance of the popular vote results in those states. Obama cannot see one step ahead, for adding them to the vote count would give the Democratic primary season popular vote majority to Hillary.
There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.
SOURCE
By Denis Keohane
Will Hillary outsmart Obama and take the nomination at the last minute?
Many of us familiar with Hillary Clinton's approach to achieving her goals refused to believe that she ever gave up all hope of winning the nomination and the presidency. Her words and actions on the subject of the convention itself always left the door open for a return, should Obama falter or suffer some calamity.
Her artful evasions were enough to lull journalists and (more importantly) Obama and his supporters into the presumption of inevitability. No further rumblings of a mass protest in Denver should the first black candidate be denied his rightful due were heard. After all, he received enough publicly expressed support from super delegates to put him over the top. And he won the popular vote in the primaries, we were assured, lending legitimacy to the super delegates who voiced their support.
Everyone presumed the presumptive nominee was a lock.
Now there are a few signs that Hillary may be making her move.
- Blogger Patterico alludes to the Hillary Clinton campaign burning up the phone lines to the super delegates.
- Bill Clinton told ABC News, "I am not a racist" and contended the race card was played against him. Even when prompted in the same interview to state that Obama was ready for the Presidency, he did not deliver.
- Hillary's PUMA ( short for "Party Unity My A--.") supporters in Denver and nationally plan a rally at a Denver park during the convention.
- ABC news reported yesterday that Hillary Clinton does not rule out putting her name in nomination,contradicting earlier press reports.
National polls show not only a tightening of the Obama-McCain race to a statistical dead heat but momentum toward a McCain lead, something inconceivable only weeks ago. The specter of an Obama collapse has to haunt more than a few super delegates.
Buyer's remorse seemed evident and growing among many Democrats toward the end of their primary season when Obama lost again and again to Clinton, even as the delegate math was by then stacked in his favor. That remorse was put on hold (but apparently not resolved) by Obama's seeming to secure the nomination and the subsequent popular boost he enjoyed at first. But lately the candidate with a difference has had a hard time living up to his promise to be a new kind of politician.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.
How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or lost, served one, two or no terms?
It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.
After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes
Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.
If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!
This is proof that the man should not be negotiating with Ahmadinejad. If he cannot think strategically and recognize his vulnerability to a last minute ambush at the convention, he would be eaten alive in big league world affairs.
Worst of all, in his letter to the Credentials Committee arguing in favor of full votes for the two delegations, he writes:
Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our country in a new direction.
These words tacitly argue for acceptance of the popular vote results in those states. Obama cannot see one step ahead, for adding them to the vote count would give the Democratic primary season popular vote majority to Hillary.
There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.
SOURCE
Comments
Give it back to Hillary! Obama is an imbecile.
Several things strike me as very telling that Hillary has planned her move all along.
Here goes
First, she never terminated her campaign, she just froze it.
Second, all along she held strong that the Florida and Michigan delegates should all be seated (meaning that she wanted all the votes in Florida and Michigan to count). She has used this "voters right" issue as her battle cry throughout her campaign. And in many ways, she is correct. The Democratic Party (Howard Dean) were idiots to disenfranchise millions of voters. And Obama has shown himself to be an arrogant jerk when he went along with the Party in denying those votes. Now, Obama has fallen into Hillary's trap by his own hubris and arrogance by asking the Credentials Committee to seat the delegations fully (give them full votes at the convention).
Third, Hillary has "played nice" by pretending to support Obama. (And I really mean pretend here folks.) Everyone can tell she's half-heartedly doing her thing for Obama. And hasn't Obama failed to honor his agreement to help pay off her campaign debt? I don't see any campaign contributions toward Hillary from Obama or his wife, but I do see a campaign contribution from Hillary to Obama.....
Fourth, Hillary has given hints all along that there will be "unity" at the convention, yet has not given us details. By unity, she means that one way or the other, she will either have the nomination, or the VP nomination. (I think she wants the nomination.)
Fifth, Bill Clinton gave a little taste to the press of how he can destroy Obama when he spoke to that female reporter last week about how he was not a racist. You remember, right? This was his way of telling Obama how he could destroy his campaign in a heartbeat. (Really, Hillary is ready, willing and able to personally hand deliver tons of negative information to McCain to help him win the election if Hillary does not get the nomination).
Sixth, notice how the press has completely failed to report as a front page story the fact that on August 3 Obama asked the credentials committee to reinstate all votes for Florida and Michigan. Why? Why was this buried? Not one story did any math. Not one story pointed out the hypocrisy of Obama working first to deny those votes during the primary when it suited him at the time, and then, once he believed he was the nominee, pandering to those voters by asking that their votes count so that they would vote for him in the general election.
Seventh, it was very, very clear that Obama did not want a roll call vote for Hillary. Remember that video of him in the airplane? He was tense, and did not want to discuss that particular issue. This tells me he has been put into a box and that he was having to concede points to Hillary. I think Hillary and her people have been threatening him with the truth and he is having to concede. And the press is leaking this stuff bit by bit. So remember, at first Obama said he did not want the convention to be about some kind of cartharsis for Hillary, but to be an exciting event for him. And today his people say they "promoted and asked for" the roll call vote so it would be carthatic . . . yeah right. They're crumbling.
Eighth, just today, Anderson Cooper on CNN posed a very provocative question when he said, "well, if Obama can't handle pressure from Hillary, how can we expect him to handle someone like Putin?" This is CNN showing it is in the bag for Hillary. (I mean, Wolf Blitzer has always been in the bag for Hillary. It's been very clear from watching CNN.) Why would Anderson say that? He's told to folks!
Finally, even today when the story broke that Hillary would get the roll call vote, no one has actually spelled out the exact delegate numbers and how they wash out. That's kind of strange. Why not? Are we being broken in bit by bit? Is that the deal? What's up?
I want to see someone analyze the numbers. Is is still 2118 that the nominee needs? And after Florida and Michigan numbers are added, what's the tally? Doesn't it put Hillary just about 50 delegates BEHIND Obama? And isn't this too close for anyone to "declare" Obama a presumptive nominee? Doesn't this closeness mean, then, that the super delegates should then support Hillary?
Finally, Obama is slipping in the pollls. With a Republican in office, and with Democrats not liking Bush one bit (can we say hate here?), why isn't Obama stronger? I think it's because the more information people learn about Obama, they realize he is not qualified, suitable or ready to be president of the most powerful country in the world.
Again, finally, if Hillary can outmaneuver Obama in convention politics, how can anyone expect Obama to not be outmaneuvered by the world's many despots (can you say Russia, Iran, Serbia, North Korea, etc???)?
There's lots more, but I'm tired and want to watch Phelps swim to a sixth gold medal.
glc
(And yes, I'm voting for McCain.)